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" "So you have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And that’s as close to certain as any prediction you can make. You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge. And you’ve got to play within your own circle of competence.
Charles Thomas Munger (January 1, 1924 – November 28, 2023) was Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, the diversified investment corporation chaired by investor Warren Buffett.
Biography information from Wikiquote
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And deprival-superreaction syndrome also comes in: You’re going to lose the whole thing if you don’t put in a little more. People go broke that way because they can’t stop, rethink, and say, “I can afford to write this one off and live to fight again. I don’t have to pursue this thing as an obsession, in a way that will break me.
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So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy-odds against game full of bullshit and craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you’re probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It’s just that simple.