Which models are the most reliable? Well, obviously, the models that come from hard science and engineering are the most reliable models on this eart… - Charlie Munger

So you have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And that’s as close to certain as any prediction you can make. You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge. And you’ve got to play within your own circle of competence.

Yet, within this pursuit of rationality and simplicity, he is careful to avoid what he calls physics envy, the common human craving to reduce enormously complex systems (such as those in economics) to one-size-fits-all Newtonian formulas. Instead, he faithfully honors Albert Einstein’s admonition: “A scientific theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

However, averaged out, betting on the quality of a business is better than betting on the quality of management. In other words, if you have to choose one, bet on the business momentum, not the brilliance of the manager. But very rarely, you find a manager who’s so good that you’re wise to follow him into what looks like a mediocre business.