It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important,” George Soros once said, “but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you los… - Morgan Housel

The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt. — BERTRAND RUSSELL

Conservative is avoiding a certain level of risk. Margin of safety is raising the odds of success at a given level of risk by increasing your chances of survival. Its magic is that the higher your margin of safety, the smaller your edge needs to be to have a favorable outcome.

Nassim Taleb put it this way: “Having an ‘edge’ and surviving are two different things: the first requires the second. You need to avoid ruin. At all costs.