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Far more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side. You’ll rarely read about an investor who aim… - Shane Parrish
" "Far more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side. You’ll rarely read about an investor who aimed for 25% annual return rates who subsequently earned 40% over a long period of time. You can throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and hit the names of lots of investors who aim for 25% per annum with each investment and end up closer to 10%.
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When things happen in accord with our view of the world we naturally think they are good for us and others. When they conflict with our views, they are wrong and bad. But the world is smarter than we are and it will teach us all we need to know if we’re open to its feedback — if we keep our feet on the ground.
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