Conventional economic theory is built is built on the assumption of diminishing returns. Economic actions engender a negative feedback that leads to … - W. Brian Arthur

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Conventional economic theory is built is built on the assumption of diminishing returns. Economic actions engender a negative feedback that leads to a predictable equilibrium for prices and market shares. Such feedback tends to stabilize the economy because any major changes will be offset by the very reactions they generate. The high oil prices of the 1970s encouraged energy conservation and increased oil exploration, precipitating a predictable drop in prices by the early 1980s. According to conventional theory, the equilibrium marks the “best” outcome possible under the circumstances: the most efficient use and allocation of resources.

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About W. Brian Arthur

William Brian Arthur (born 21 July 1946) is an economist, Emeritus Professor of Economics and Population Studies at Stanford University, external faculty member at the , and a Visiting Researcher at the Intelligent Systems Lab at PARC. He is an authority on economics in relation to complexity theory, technology and financial markets, and is credited with influencing and describing the modern theory of increasing returns, and the invention of the .

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Alternative Names: William Brian Arthur
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Additional quotes by W. Brian Arthur

Complexity theory is really a movement of the sciences. Standard sciences tend to see the world as mechanistic. That sort of science puts things under a finer and finer microscope. In biology the investigations go from classifying organisms to functions of organisms, then organs themselves, then cells, and then organelles, right down to protein and enzymes, metabolic pathways, and DNA. This is finer and finer reductionist thinking.
The movement that started complexity looks in the other direction. It’s asking, how do things assemble themselves? How do patterns emerge from these interacting elements? Complexity is looking at interacting elements and asking how they form patterns and how the patterns unfold. It’s important to point out that the patterns may never be finished. They’re open-ended. In standard science this hit some things that most scientists have a negative reaction to. Science doesn’t like perpetual novelty.

Right after we published our first findings, we started getting letters from all over the country saying, "You know, all you guys have done is rediscover Austrian economics"… I admit I wasn't familiar with Hayek and von Mises at the time. But now that I've read them, I can see that this is essentially true.

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