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using conditional probability means being very careful to observe the conditions preceding an event you’d like to understand. - Shane Parrish
" "using conditional probability means being very careful to observe the conditions preceding an event you’d like to understand.
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About Shane Parrish
Shane Parrish is a Canadian author and podcast host best known for founding Farnam Street (fs.blog), a learning platform dedicated to mastering the best of what others have already figured out. A former intelligence analyst at Canada's Communications Security Establishment, he is the author of Clear Thinking and The Great Mental Models series, and hosts the Knowledge Project podcast, featuring long-form conversations with world-class thinkers on decision-making, leadership, and wisdom.
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Additional quotes by Shane Parrish
Why mental models? There is no system that can prepare us for all risks. Factors of chance introduce a level of complexity that is not entirely predictable. But being able to draw on a repertoire of mental models can help us minimize risk by understanding the forces that are at play. Likely consequences don’t have to be a mystery.
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