In Dan’s case, the interest in policymaking is so central to the students’ presence at Harvard that it would be foolish to run a statistics course th… - David Franklin

After pausing, the student continues: “There’s also an element of believing something because you want it to happen.” This betrays a second bias in which we believe what we want to be true. This is a form of confirmation bias, which exacerbates the distorting effect of availability bias. We seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs or desires, and ignore information that refutes them.

He asks the 80 students to respond based on their ‘gut feeling’. Again, students are given five options, ranging from ‘less than 1%’ to ‘above 40%’. About half of them believe the true answer is less than 5%, of which plenty go for the ‘less than 1%’ option. Only 1 in 6 get it right, picking the highest option: it turns out that the true figure is 41%. He invites those people – 13 in total – to stand up.

On the whiteboard in Dan’s office, he has written in bold black marker the phrase ‘TEACHING ≠ LEARNING’. He believes that most lecturers pay too much attention to what they are doing in a class. Planning is important, and professors are right to spend time in advance thinking about how the class will be structured. One downside, though, is that professors will often evaluate themselves against what they said they would do in the plan. If they covered the material without tripping up, and gave the right explanations at the right time, they will be happy about how the class went.