We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future — and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their de… - Warren Buffett

Our basic principle is that if you want to shoot rare, fast-moving elephants, you should always carry a loaded gun. p217

The textile industry illustrates in textbook style how producers of relatively undifferentiated goods in capital intensive businesses must earn inadequate returns except under conditions of tight supply or real shortage. As long as excess productive capacity exists, prices tend to reflect direct operating costs rather than capital employed. Such a supply-excess condition appears likely to prevail most of the time in the textile industry, and our expectations are for profits of relatively modest amounts in relation to capital.

What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end