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" "There is always something you can do in the moment today to better your position tomorrow. You might not be able to solve the problem, but your next action will make the situation better or worse. There is always an action you can control, however tiny, that helps you achieve progress.
Shane Parrish is a Canadian author and podcast host best known for founding Farnam Street (fs.blog), a learning platform dedicated to mastering the best of what others have already figured out. A former intelligence analyst at Canada's Communications Security Establishment, he is the author of Clear Thinking and The Great Mental Models series, and hosts the Knowledge Project podcast, featuring long-form conversations with world-class thinkers on decision-making, leadership, and wisdom.
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The core of Bayesian thinking (or Bayesian updating, as it can be called) is this: given that we have limited but useful information about the world, and are constantly encountering new information, we should probably take into account what we already know when we learn something new. As much of it as possible. Bayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions. Statisticians might call it a base rate, taking in outside information about past situations like the one you’re in.