Countries are poor not because their people are lazy; their people are 'lazy' because they are poor. - Ha-Joon Chang

[A] lot of developing countries are dependent on primary commodities, and especially those that are dependent on oil have been devastated because oil demand has collapsed as a result of the pandemic. ...[I]t is important for developing countries to diversify... production structure to avoid this... Easier said than done... Ecuador, under Rafael Correa, tried for about 10 years to shift the production structure. The pull of the oil was so strong that by the end of his term, it was a bit lower, but the dependence was still very high. ...[I]n the next few years, because of the pandemic... primary commodities... (material products) might actually become more important in relative terms... [T]he overall level of demand will be lower... but... in relative terms, at least, primary commodities are going to fare better than... services. The point... is... what happens in the long run will really depend on what you do with the income that you earn from primary commodities. ...[L]uckily a lot of countries have been thinking about industrializing using more active ... so something might happen in some countries and... some... are already doing... very impressive things... Ethiopia has converted a lot of its garment making facilities—basically investments from east Asia: South Korea, China, Taiwan—into factories producing [medical] personal protection equipment... [I]t has converted... passenger jet planes into cargo planes and is doing more cargo business.

[F]inally, linking that into the reorganization of the ... [I]n many cases, unless the crisis really persists for 3, 4, 5 years... as soon as things become okay people will just say "Well, let's forget about it because reorganizing the value chain requires investment, hard work... Let's just go back to the old ways." So it's not certain... that... reorganization will happen, and even if it...[does], it will happen only in limited areas... [E]ven if the US wants to bring all the lost manufacturing production in... key sectors back home, it cannot do it. ...[T]hey don't have the supply network. They don't have the correct infrastructure. They don't have the necessary supply of technicians. ...[E]ven if it wanted, Apple cannot bring factories in China to California to make the s.

<nowiki>[</nowiki>Modern monetary theory or Keynesian economic policies...] I'm not a macroeconomist but... those kinds of macroeconomic thinking will become more influential. I wouldn't say dominant because... the current macroeconomic approach [is] a weird mixture of... fiscal conservatives and monetary abandon ...dominant because it serves the powerful interests, so I don't know whether ...the rise of Keynesianism or the monetary theory—which is... certain—will be sufficient to replace the existing [system]... [It is] not just in terms of macroeconomic policy I mentioned that is going to see change. ...[W]e are going to see big changes in the way that we... manage the welfare state, which has implications for taxation policy. ...We are going to see big changes in the structure of production, which will has ramifications for and trade policy. So... it will be in all kinds of areas and hopefully... it will also spill into our approach to fighting . So... it's not just going to be in the macroeconomic area that the conventional wisdom and prevailing orthodoxy are being hit. It's across all areas, reflecting partly the all-encompassing nature about this crisis. So... there will be significant changes, but... whether one economic theory becomes dominant, or at least widely accepted, is in big part a political question. So a lot will depend on how things unfold and how the political elite respond to this.