Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the historical fact is that the rich countries did not develop on the basis of the policies and the institutions… - Ha-Joon Chang

So... there will be only a limited degree of reorganization, but... in the long run countries and industries that do it in a more sustainable way, making the network more robust, more dispersed, more resilient, will reap the benefit. But let's not underestimate the... seduction of immediate gains. So... despite all this hullabalu the final reorganization will be rather limited. I'm not saying that it shouldn't be done, but my guess is that it will be done in a limited way, because every time there's some disaster... When there was the famous Fukushima earthquake, the problem with the nuclear reactor... there were some sectors that saw... the end of the supply for... intermediate materials because there was one Japanese company that was supplying 70% of the world... Every time that happens, like the earthquake in Taiwan... several years before, everyone says... we have to change the supply chain... make it less concentrated... less complicated, and then... 2 years later we are back to square one. So I'm not too sure about how much change will happen to the global value chains. ...[T]he taste for global free trade will be diminished somewhat, but... on that we should... change the conversation, because... we—especially those who are concerned with the fate of developing countries, like the people that source—we need to talk about intelligent trade in a completely different way. ...[I]t's not just a simple dichotomous problem of free trade versus . ...[T]here are many different ways of organizing . ...There are many ways of regulating trade. Protectionism is only one way. ...[W]e do it with ... with programs... with, in the case of the US, defense policy, so... we need to change the conversation in a more nuanced way...

This means that... there is a general fall in demand, so the level of activities in every sector is lower, but this means that in relative terms, sectors that produce multiple goods are likely to expand, partly because it's easier to maintain the level of production in those sectors, but also because when people do not spend money on these face-to-face services, they will spend money on other things... There's already a sign that the demand for goods... is rising, so... there will be a shift from services to manufacturing and agriculture in the coming years.

[E]conomics can never be a science in the sense that physics or chemistry is. There are many different types of economic theory, each emphasizing different aspects of a complex reality, making different moral and political value judgments and drawing different conclusions. ...[E]conomic theories constantly fail to predict real-world developments... not least because human beings have... free will, unlike chemical molecules or [other] physical objects.