The possibility of an external hit like a windfall tax, export ban, or other such political measures risk keeping potential suppliers on the sidelines - Kelly Evans

The hope now is that fiscal and monetary policy are at least both retrenching, if policymakers truly want to wrestle inflation back down. Remember, this isn't about soaring (or collapsing) lumber prices anymore. It's about a labor market running so hot it's short of millions and millions of workers, which will make everything from childcare to elder care more inflationary in the long run

There are too many job openings, a problem compounded by too much "phantom demand" caused by all the stimulus, and also by the lack of normal immigrant workers for political and pandemic reasons.

The oil and gas industry was decimated by the shale bubble bursting last decade, and that reticence plus labor and supply shortages are keeping it from more quickly adding to capacity now. The possibility of an external hit like a windfall tax, export ban, or other such political measures risk keeping potential suppliers on the sidelines