The future of the Nigerian economy is very bright. The Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (ERRP) by the Federal Government with other complementary policies are set to propel the Nigerian economy out of the recession and move the economy forward. The broad government strategy of infrastructure development, structural reforms and investment in social safety nets are policies that will position the economy to a more inclusive and diversified growth.
Nigerian economist
Sarah Omotunde Alade is a Nigerian economist. She was acting governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria during the suspension of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. She was appointed to the post by president Goodluck Jonathan on 20 February 2014. She held this position until the appointment of Godwin Emefiele in June 2014.
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The challenges are many. Oil price volatility and the unstable global environment are major challenges for Central Banking in Nigeria as they are causing growth challenges and other spill-over effects for the local economy. Central Banking in Nigeria is faced with other enormous challenges such as the size of Nigeria’s informal sector. Globally, developing/emerging economies are characterized by a big informal sector which causes a lot of limitations to Monetary Policy implantation and coverage because a majority of the participants in the sector are not using formal financial services and so cannot be captured formally.
In 2016, the Nigerian economy officially entered into recession, recording two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rates of 0.36 per cent and 2.06 per cent in the first and second quarters, respectively. For the full year of 2016, the real GDP contracted by 1.51 per cent. Achieving price stability has remained the priority objective of most central banks. However, given the high level of poverty and unemployment in most developing countries, it has become imperative for central banks to work hard at achieving price stability with growth.
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Taking these factors together, the effect on the Nigerian economy has been the significant decline in the country’s foreign reserves, depreciation of the Naira and substantial increase in consumer prices. To reverse the trend and put the economy back on a path to economic recovery, significant effort is needed on the part of the Federal Government, especially harmonization of its fiscal and monetary policies to boost aggregate demand and investor confidence.
Then, there is the issue of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Non- harmonization of monetary and fiscal policies is an issue of serious concern in the country because they complement each other. Monetary policy has a limit and whenever it reaches that limit, the only way out is for the fiscal authorities to intervene in the economy. So, in the absence of such coordination/harmonization between the two, a serious economic problem may arise.
The independence of the Central Bank is necessary. The Bank needs the freedom and space to take a long view of what is best for the economy and take decisions accordingly. Central Banks have consistently moved towards policy independence to pursue policies free from political interference. Although no central bank can be entirely independent of government’s influence, it must be free to choose the instruments it needs to achieve its mandate. The Bank must also be free from fiscal dominance; that is a situation where fiscal considerations unduly dictate monetary policy.