Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human… - Peter Turchin

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Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability...

Peter Turchin

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About Peter Turchin

Peter Valentinovich Turchin (born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called —mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. As of 2020, he is a director of the .

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Alternative Names: P Turchin • Peter Valentinovich Turchin

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Carroll Quigley Ha-Joon Chang Naomi Klein Robert Gilpin John Komlos

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Many triggering events... are ultimately caused by pent-up social pressures ...[i.e.,] the structural factors.

I'll use the example of the United States, which I have studied from inside out... over the past 20 years, and I will illustrate how these few forces... have laid out in real life... a particular example...

[I]nequality... at least in this model, is not a direct driver. It's a proxie for the direct drivers, which is immiseration and elite overproduction.

Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability... - Peter Turchin

About Peter Turchin

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