the world becomes a better place – an easier place to navigate if we admit that even though there are opinions, they may be wrong. - Howard Marks

This paradox exists because most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something's risky. But high quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe. It's just a matter of the price paid for them...Elevated popular opinion, then, isn't just the source of low return potential, but also of high risk.

It's worth noting that the assumption that something can't happen has the potential to make it happen, since people who believe it can't happen will engage in risky behaviour, and thus alter the environment.

An accurate opinion on valuation, loosely held, will be of limited help. An incorrect opinion on valuation, strongly held, is far worse. This one statement shows how hard it is to get it all right.