Howard Marks Quotes

There aren’t always great things to do, and sometimes we maximize our contribution by being discerning and relatively inactive. Patient opportunism – waiting for bargains – is often your best strategy.

In good years, defensive investors have to be content with the knowledge that their gains, although perhaps less than maximal, were achieved with risk protection in place, even though it turned out not to be needed.

the world becomes a better place – an easier place to navigate if we admit that even though there are opinions, they may be wrong.

Risk arises as investor behaviour alters the market. Investors bid up assets, accelerating into the present appreciation that otherwise would have occurred in the future, and thus lowering prospective returns. The ultimate irony lies in the fact that the reward for taking incremental risk shrinks as more people move to take it.

Forgetfulness is the catalytic germ of spontaneous creativity

If you've settled on the value approach to investing and come up with an intrinsic value for a security or asset, the next important thing is to hold it firmly. That's because in the world of investing, being correct about something isn't at all synonymous with being proved correct right away.

Most people strive to adjust their portfolios based on what they think lies ahead. At the same time, however, most people would admit forward visibility just isn't that great. That's why I make the case for responding to the current realities and their implications, as opposed to expecting the future to be made clear.

In bubbles, infatuation with market momentum takes over from any notion of value and fair price, and greed (plus the pain of standing by as others make seemingly easy money) neutralises any prudence that might otherwise hold sway.

O apêndice de Warren Buffett para a quarta edição revisada de O investidor inteligente (livro de Benjamin Graham) descreve um concurso em que cada um dos 225 milhões de americanos começa com 1 dólar e lança uma moeda uma vez por dia. As pessoas que acertam no primeiro dia recolhem um dólar daqueles que erraram; é feito um novo lançamento no segundo dia, e assim por diante. Dez dias depois, 220 mil pessoas acertaram dez vezes seguidas e ganharam 1.000 dólares. “Talvez tentem ser modestas, mas, nas festas, admitirão ocasionalmente, aos membros atraentes do sexo oposto, suas técnicas e os maravilhosos insights que podem oferecer para o estudo do lançamento de moedas.” Depois de mais dez dias, estamos com 215 sobreviventes que acertaram vinte vezes seguidas e ganharam 1 milhão de dólares cada. Essas pessoas escrevem livros intitulados “Como transformei um dólar em um milhão em vinte dias trabalhando trinta segundos por manhã” e passam a ganhar dinheiro com palestras. Soa familiar?

An accurate opinion on valuation, loosely held, will be of limited help. An incorrect opinion on valuation, strongly held, is far worse. This one statement shows how hard it is to get it all right

An accurate opinion on valuation, loosely held, will be of limited help. An incorrect opinion on valuation, strongly held, is far worse. This one statement shows how hard it is to get it all right.

This paradox exists because most investors think quality, as opposed to price, is the determinant of whether something's risky. But high quality assets can be risky, and low quality assets can be safe. It's just a matter of the price paid for them...Elevated popular opinion, then, isn't just the source of low return potential, but also of high risk.

Never forget the six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average.

No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. An asset is only attractive if it’s priced right.

There's only one way to describe most investors: trend followers.