There is no better teacher than history in determining the future... There are answers worth billions of dollars in 30$ history book. - Charlie Munger

There’s only one right way to do it: You have to get the main doctrines together and use them as a checklist. And, to repeat for emphasis, you have to pay special attention to combinatorial effects that create lollapalooza consequences.

Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance).

In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact.