Failing properly has two major components. First, never take a risk that will do you in completely. (Never get taken out of the game completely.) Sec… - Shane Parrish

Far more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side. You’ll rarely read about an investor who aimed for 25% annual return rates who subsequently earned 40% over a long period of time. You can throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and hit the names of lots of investors who aim for 25% per annum with each investment and end up closer to 10%.

There is an old adage that encapsulates this: “To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.” Not every problem is a nail. The world is full of complications and interconnections that can only be explained through understanding of multiple models.

Too often we get stuck in “functional fixedness,” a mindset where we see in things only their intended use, rather than their potential use.