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" "Some emerging markets will check all the boxes — strong population growth, growing middle class, verge of investment grade, great leadership, and hunger for capital — and then be missing the one ingredient that enables you to monetize your investment: scale. Without scale, you don’t have liquidity. You have no optionality. In essence, you’re stuck.
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Risk is the ultimate differentiator. I have always had a deep and complex relationship with it. I am not a reckless person, but taking risks is really the only way to consistently achieve above-average returns — in life as well as in investments. My father proved that when he left Poland. I am probably more comfortable with risk than most people. That’s because I do as much as I can to understand it. To me, risk-taking rests on the ability to see all the variables and then identify the ones that will make or break you.
I was the pitchman. I went to each of the houses, sat on a lot of couches, and flipped through dozens of family photo albums as I explained to the homeowners that we were going to build student housing and they could either stay and put up with loud music at night and beer cans on the lawn, or they could move to the other side of Ann Arbor. It worked. I kept buying houses and eventually acquired one full block of land. They were all cash deals, $1,000 each to tie up the properties with deferred closings requiring around $20,000.
Years later, people would ask me, “How did you know when and what to buy?” But all I basically did was create a massive arbitrage — a fixed-rate instrument in an inflationary environment. I essentially took on $4 billion of nonrecourse debt at an average interest rate of 6 percent in an environment with inflation of 9 percent or higher. That means I was already making 3 percent returns the second the deal closed — without doing a thing to the assets. Sure, we picked some terrific properties, but every one didn’t have to be Class A.