We conclude that most of the time, the future will look a lot like the past, with both up cycles and down cycles. There is a right time to argue that… - Howard Marks
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We conclude that most of the time, the future will look a lot like the past, with both up cycles and down cycles. There is a right time to argue that things will be better, and that's when the market is on its backside and everyone is selling things at giveaway prices. It's dangerous when the market's at record levels to reach for a positive rationalisation that has never held true in the past.
Howard Stanley Marks (born April 23, 1946) is an American investor and writer. He is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide.
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Howard Stanley Marks
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Howard S. Marks
If one is approached with a deal predicated on cycles having ceased to occur, remember that invariably that’s a losing bet.
The most dangerous thing is to buy something at the peak of its popularity. At that point, all favourable facts and opinions are already factored into its price and no new buyers are left to emerge
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In bubbles, infatuation with market momentum takes over from any notion of value and fair price, and greed (plus the pain of standing by as others make seemingly easy money) neutralises any prudence that might otherwise hold sway.
