[W]hile declining living standards are often a contributing… - Peter Turchin

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[W]hile declining living standards are often a contributing factor to... instability, reversing this trend does not end instability until elite overproduction is... reversed...

Peter Turchin

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About Peter Turchin

Peter Valentinovich Turchin (born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called —mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. As of 2020, he is a director of the .

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Alternative Names: P Turchin • Peter Valentinovich Turchin

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[T]he theory has been applied to two contemporary societies. The first... is a structural-demographic model for the... USA... the basis for the 2010 prediction. The details... were published [by] Turchin and later expanded into a book-length treatment.

Specific triggers... are difficult, perhaps... impossible to predict. ...[S]tructural pressures build up slowly and more predictably, and are amenable to analysis and forecasting.

[T]here are important recurring patterns... throughout... human history over the past ten thousand years.

[W]hile declining living standards are often a contributing factor to... instability, reversing this trend does not end instability until elite overp… - Peter Turchin

About Peter Turchin

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