[G]rowing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, political, and cultural. - Peter Turchin

[D]isease outbreaks occur much more frequently during... crisis periods. Such epidemics historically have had a disproportionate effect on the less advantaged... and the Covid-19 pandemic was not an exception. ...[I]n terms of ... the pandemic... further worsened the well-being of large swaths of the American population... consequently, drove up the mass-mobilization potential. ...[G]overnmental dysfunction in dealing with the pandemic, coupled with intra-elite infighting, will likely further depress... trust in government institutions. Thus... the coronavirus has... further destabilize[d] the American .

Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent—and predictable—waves of political instability...

All these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020.