Forecasting the future of technology is risky. Predictions tend to be linear whereas technical advances come in quantum jumps from paradigm shifts. A… - Robert J. Marks II

Computers can only analyze inside the box. Remarkable humans have the meta-ability to go outside ourselves, look back inside, and explore our abilities. We can understand understanding, think about thinking, and … know about the unknowable

Those who believe in the coming of Strong AI argue that non-algorithmic consciousness will be an emergent property as AI complexity ever increases. In other words, consciousness will just happen, as a sort of natural outgrowth of the code’s increasing complexity. Such unfounded optimism is akin to that of a naive young boy standing in front of a large pile of horse manure. He becomes excited and begins digging into the pile, flinging handfuls of manure over his shoulders. “With all this horse poop,” he says, “there must be a pony in here somewhere!” Strong AI proponents similarly claim, in essence, “With all this computational complexity, there must be some consciousness here somewhere!”

The ultimate success of AI is not due to journal papers, blogs, press releases, forecasts, corporate acquisitions, speculation, or promises. Success is measured by reduction to practice.