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Forecasting the future of technology is risky. Predictions tend to be linear whereas technical advances come in quantum jumps from paradigm shifts. After the second World War, forecasters in electronics [who did not foresee the transistor] would have linearly [and incorrectly] foretasted breakthroughs in better vacuum tube reliability from, for example, improved filament chemistry.

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[The robot] Sophia has been granted citizenship in Saudi Arabia. And Homer Simpson has been given citizenship in Winnipeg, Ontario. Both decisions are silly. The difference is that the city of Winnipeg acknowledged that their action was a joke.

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Those who believe in the coming of Strong AI argue that non-algorithmic consciousness will be an emergent property as AI complexity ever increases. In other words, consciousness will just happen, as a sort of natural outgrowth of the code’s increasing complexity. Such unfounded optimism is akin to that of a naive young boy standing in front of a large pile of horse manure. He becomes excited and begins digging into the pile, flinging handfuls of manure over his shoulders. “With all this horse poop,” he says, “there must be a pony in here somewhere!” Strong AI proponents similarly claim, in essence, “With all this computational complexity, there must be some consciousness here somewhere!”