The conversation is missing some fundamental trends, the new paradigm. Larry talked about financial inclusion... about China. The New Paradigm is tha… - Keyu Jin

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The conversation is missing some fundamental trends, the new paradigm. Larry talked about financial inclusion... about China. The New Paradigm is that it's the first time that a middle-income country is the second largest economy. We're asking it... from IMF, from international pressures for liberalization, exchange rate... flexibility. ...[W]e are not prepared for the volatility that China will bring to the world economy if it does open up. Micro-foundations of the financial infrastructure is very weak, ...dominated by speculators rather than s. So we need to think about this dilemma. We want it to open up. It has a massive amount of saving, connect with the rest of the world for investment, and yet it's going to introduce so much extra volatility typical of a developing country, and the world is not prepared for that yet... I think that is the number one challenge that we need to think about because that is the financial story written today. We also did not mention the dollar challenge, which is the confidence in the dollar. Now, we have s growing. There's a huge demand for dollars. That is rising, but on the other hand, what is backing the dollar or the liquidity is the . We just talked about the fiscal stimulus. ...The share of GDP of the US is going down. We have geopolitical issues, which is a very strong determinant to how much a country wants to hold US treasuries. All this push up to a... multipolar paradigm, and we're not discussing that either. The US maintains the status of the dollar predominantly because [of] a lack of present alternatives.

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About Keyu Jin

(Chinese: 金刻羽; born 13 November 1982) is a Chinese economist. She is a Harvard-educated economist serving as associate professor of economics at the . She is one of the 's , specialising in international macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. Her research focuses on global trade imbalances, global asset prices and China's economic growth model. She is the author of The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism (2023).

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Alternative Names: Jin Keyu
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Before, they were comfortably importing chips. ...Of course Chinese companies would love to import chips. Now they have to turn to domestic substitution, and that's accelerating... making domestic chip companies much more profitable... in many, many different areas.

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[B]ooms and busts is a natural feature of market economies. In the last 40 years China has really never had a bust. ...[B]ust cycles also oust less productive firms and provides exit mechanisms, and that creative destruction... is one of the bright spots... of the situation.

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