[Some] Latin American countries... and Asian economies... experienced rapid growth, but... [never] graduated into... high-income countries. ...[I]t could have been due to corruption, political instability, poor , or inadequate investment in ...This ...is ..."the middle-income trap." Since 1960, only 13 out of 101 middle-income economies... escape[d] it. ...China ...may follow... Japan['s]... lost decade of no growth in the 1990s. If, however, China can keep growing at 5 percent on average, and... the US continues... at... 1.5 percent... the Chinese... will overtake the US... by... 2030. China would not be as rich... for several more decades, but... more than a billion Chinese would enjoy the same living standards... However, ...China will need a new model of growth. ...5 percent ...seems overly optimistic ...275 percent ...debt to GDP ...as of 2022 points to ...painful ... ...And threats of make an export-oriented economy ...fragile.
Chinese economist
(Chinese: 金刻羽; born 13 November 1982) is a Chinese economist. She is a Harvard-educated economist serving as associate professor of economics at the . She is one of the 's , specialising in international macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. Her research focuses on global trade imbalances, global asset prices and China's economic growth model. She is the author of The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism (2023).
From: Wikiquote (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Alternative Names:
Jin Keyu
From Wikidata (CC0)
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[Y]oung people are big spenders, prodigious borrowers... the potential to unleash trillions... into the global economy... [t]hey are... more open-minded and socially conscious... However, ...less suited to Western-style democracy ...[D]eeply layered in the national psyche ...steeped in their ...culture ...traditions, and rooted in their ...communities ...ushering in an era of economic... without political liberalization...
China’s economic story... serves as a cautionary tale. [I]n 1978... it began... major reforms... people were mired in poverty. In... ensuing decades, hundreds of millions... were lifted out of poverty. ...But ...[at] a high price ...below-market wages... low... return on... savings... cheaply built housing... environmental degradation and wasted resources... based on a high-cost, high-growth model.
A poor nation with ambitions... taking shortcuts. ...Rules and regulations ...bent ...to foster GDP growth. Unfair competition... between... insiders... and the... people... countenanced so long as capital flew in, investment grew, businesses boomed, and GDP surged.
But... the next generation of leaders... more educated and fluent with diverse cultures, are... equipped to bridge the gap between... worldviews. ... US education has opened their eyes to... virtues of an open... if not a wholly free society. Their desire to question... challenge... pursue the truth, and to push back against injustice will have important implications...
Chinese state... power... [and unparalleled] instruments... can... steer, manage, and push the economy... any direction. ...Policy directives, rules, and regulations can be set with little political obstruction. The state can scrap old rules and make new ones overnight... granting or denying... approvals and licenses, or leveraging the to serve a... goal. ...Internal controls and competition curb corruption. ...[C]ivic society holds ...government ...accountable ...Social media ...embodies a two-way monitoring platform ...
In China, the confluence of consumers, enterprises, and... state (which exerts significant power...) ...[is] a hybrid... of... market and "mayor" economies... [T]he Chinese state... has... more tools and instruments... mandates and objectives to mobilize collective action in service of... goals. ...[I]t can ...impose mandates and ...punishment.
We are focused too much on a financial story of yesterday. Now the dollar is the . The U.S. financial crisis is an aftermath. The financial history or... story of today and tomorrow is going to be about... China's . ...[W]hat is new, and I'm not sure the world is... prepared for it, is... a few firsts of an emerging country. 1) It is the first time a country with only 25% of GDP of the U.S. is leading in many core areas of technology. 2) It is the first time ever that the second largest economy is a middle-income superpower. That has enormous consequences for the... global financial arena. As we encourage China to open up more, are we prepared for, potentially the greater volatility, exchange rate volatility, s... [W]hat... is lacking... even though we've heard so many positive aspects... and I'm completely in agreement, is that China still lacks the micro-foundations in the financial industry, with many more speculators than s, and in that kind of situation, when China opens up completely, is the world ready to absorb the kind of shocks and volatility that even a little tremor of China can send shock waves to... the global economy. So I would pose it as, China's ready for opening up, but is the rest of the world?
[R]ecalibration comes from two important things... First... is that internal challenges for both countries, China for sure on the economic... political... military... A lot of the focus is now inward. Chinese don't think about Americans all day long. ...Second, there's a huge unintended consequence of these technological restrictions... We've seen it in history... that whenever there are restrictions or... walls, it accelerates technological development. So what we have seen in China recently is a national mobilization. Unlikely partners from the big techs, working together. Universities, industries, governments, all trying to tackle the hard and impossible... [T]hat's... accelerated some of the endeavors to leap frog... [W]e're going to see much more of that, because of these restrictions, not despite them.