Accrding the the 6-month ensemble forecast created by the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, and ice-free Arctic Ocean will not occur this year. ...[T]h… - Guy McPherson

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Accrding the the 6-month ensemble forecast created by the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, and ice-free Arctic Ocean will not occur this year. ...[T]his was the same group of professors who incorrectly projected an ice-free Arctic Ocean to occur in 2016, plus or minus 3 years. So they are being very conservative.

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About Guy McPherson

Guy R. McPherson (born 29 February 1960) is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. He is known for the idea of Near-Term Human Extinction (NTHE), a term he coined about the likelihood of human extinction by 2030. He has made a number of predictions, including: * 2007: permanent blackouts in cities starting in 2012 due to ; * 2012: "likely" extinction of humanity by 2030 due to climate-change, and mass die-off by 2020 "for those living in the interior of a large continent" * 2018: based on "projections" of climate-change and species loss, "Specifically, I predict that there will be no humans on Earth by 2026".

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Climate change and its impacts are here. Expect superstorms, extreme heat, high humidity, and increased spread of deadly diseases. Plants and non-human animals will die in ever-larger numbers. Civilisation will fail, leading to greatly exacerbated impacts.

The cooling resulting from contemporary aerosol masking in total right now is 55% globally, including a lot of that [<small>Overhead</small>: 133%] being on land. This is from... an open access peer reviewed journal... Nature Communications...

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On September 17 of this year we bottom out at... about 4.7 million km<sup>2</sup> of ice floating on the Arctic ocean... [T]he forecast has been below the actual data... So this is great news and... I recommend that you track it... because it will give you a good idea [of] when an ice-free Arctic Ocean will occur, and therefore when we are likely to lose habitat for most, if not all species on Earth.

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