Accrding the the 6-month ensemble forecast created by the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, and ice-free Arctic Ocean will not occur this year. ...[T]his was the same group of professors who incorrectly projected an ice-free Arctic Ocean to occur in 2016, plus or minus 3 years. So they are being very conservative.
American scientist
Guy R. McPherson (born 29 February 1960) is an American scientist, professor emeritus of natural resources and ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona. He is known for the idea of Near-Term Human Extinction (NTHE), a term he coined about the likelihood of human extinction by 2030. He has made a number of predictions, including:
* 2007: permanent blackouts in cities starting in 2012 due to ;
* 2012: "likely" extinction of humanity by 2030 due to climate-change, and mass die-off by 2020 "for those living in the interior of a large continent"
* 2018: based on "projections" of climate-change and species loss, "Specifically, I predict that there will be no humans on Earth by 2026".
From: Wikiquote (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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The aerosol masking effect results from industrial activity, as does planetary warming, so this is an interesting Catch-22. Planetary warming results from es that trap heat, So once the radiation gets through the atmosphere it can warm the soil, and the buildings, and thus the effect, and the planet in general... [G]reenhouse gases trap that heat so that about 30% of it held in the atmosphere... Without the greenhouse effect we wouldn't have life on earth, but... we are well beyond the point at which we can stop... the negative consequences. [<small>Overhead</small>: Tiny particles known as aerosols reflect incoming sunlight back into space before the radiation can warm the planet.] According to professor , which most of us know as being one of the founders of understanding climate change, the aerosols fall out of the atmosphere in about five days.
Henry Gee is a paleontologist, evolutionary biologist and senior editor at Nature, and he concluded on November 30, 2021 in a paper in Scientific American... in the final line, "If we are going to write about human extinction, we'd better start writing now" and the title... is "Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct." That's very inconvenient!
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On September 17 of this year we bottom out at... about 4.7 million km<sup>2</sup> of ice floating on the Arctic ocean... [T]he forecast has been below the actual data... So this is great news and... I recommend that you track it... because it will give you a good idea [of] when an ice-free Arctic Ocean will occur, and therefore when we are likely to lose habitat for most, if not all species on Earth.