In psychology, there's something called the broken-leg problem. A statistical formula may be highly successful in predicting whether or not a person … - Atul Gawande

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In psychology, there's something called the broken-leg problem. A statistical formula may be highly successful in predicting whether or not a person will go to a movie in the next week. But someone who knows that this person is laid up with a broken leg will beat the formula. No formula can take into account the infinite range of such exceptional events.

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Alternative Names: Atul A Gawande
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