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Confidence has to come from somewhere... There are underlying factors that alter confidence and consumption, and... we've seen the scarring effects o… - Keyu Jin
" "Confidence has to come from somewhere... There are underlying factors that alter confidence and consumption, and... we've seen the scarring effects of the pandemic. Don't forget that Chinese households did not get the support that European and American households got during the pandemic... [M]ore importantly, could be declining, and we don't really know for sure, but it's not climbing, so without that you can't possibly get consumption to be really... enthusiastic. Of course, there's real estate and the stock market. ...Retail investors account for the majority of turnover for Chinese A shares and... that has also been performing problematically. And... youth unemployment is a challenge, but is it coming from a cyclical feature which is a demand deficit, in which case policies could potentially work, but... As we'll hear from Mr. Zhu, there are also constraints... There's a on s... the key implementers of economic drivers of growth, but now they are suffering from mountainous debt burdens. So these are some of the... short-term challenges.
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About Keyu Jin
(Chinese: 金刻羽; born 13 November 1982) is a Chinese economist. She is a Harvard-educated economist serving as associate professor of economics at the . She is one of the 's , specialising in international macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. Her research focuses on global trade imbalances, global asset prices and China's economic growth model. She is the author of The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism (2023).
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Jin Keyu
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Additional quotes by Keyu Jin
China's suffering from a severe deficit in demand because of low wage growth, scarring effects of the pandemic and... the real estate. But... because of China's size today, growing at 3% to 4% even, is not a bad thing. If India grows 4 percentage points faster than China from now until 2030, China's still going to contribute $130 trillion dollars of additional GDP more than India... to the world.
China... wants to embrace... trade integration... globalization and more trade and... the pressure is on for more reciprocal... trade protectionist pressures, but... China's also trying to shift its trade... production away from these lower end manufacturing sectors, excess capacity in solar, but that is not necessarily a good signal for the kind of trade tensions that might come about. Also because there's going to be a lot of domestic pressure coming from the Chinese businesses, and the Chinese people to pressure the government to react. So they [the Chinese government] will have to take a stance.
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