Wherefore (following the Steps of so Great a Man) I have attempted to bring the same Method to Arithmetical Calculation; and that with desired Success. For, having collected all the Observations of Comets I could, I fram'd this Table, the Result of a prodigious deal of Calculation, which, tho' but small in Bulk, will be no unacceptable Present to Astronomers. For these Numbers are capable of Representing all that has been yet observ'd about the Motion of Comets, by the Help only of the following General Table; in the making of which I spar'd no Labour, that it might come forth perfect, as a Thing consecrated to Posterity, and to last as long as Astronomy it self.
English astronomer, mathematician, geophysicist, meteorologist and physicist (1656–1742)
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Hitherto I have consider'd the Orbits of Comets as exactly Parabolick; upon which Supposition it wou'd follow, that Comets being impell'd towards the Sun by a Centripetal Force, descend as from Spaces infinitely distant, and by their Falls acquire such a Velocity, as that they may again run off into the remotest Parts of the Universe, moving upwards with such a perpetual Tendency, as never to return again to the Sun. But since they appear frequently enough, and since none of them can be found to move with an Hyperbolick Motion, or a Motion swifter than what the... Comet might acquire by its Gravity to the Sun, 'tis highly probable they rather move in very Excentrick Orbits, and make their Returns after long Periods of Time: For so their Number will be determinate, and, perhaps, not so very great. Besides, the Space between the Sun and the fix'd Stars is so immense, that there is Room enough for a Comet to revolve, tho' the Period of its Revolution be vastly long.
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Next, Hevelius (a Noble Emulator of Ticho Brahe) following in Kepler's Steps, embraced the same Hypothesis of the Rectilinear Motion of Comets, himself accurately observing many of them. Yet, he complain'd, that his Calculations did not perfectly agree to the Matter of Fact in the Heavens: And was aware, that the Path of a Comet was bent into a Curve Line towards the Sun.
Not long after, that Great Geometrician, the Illustrious Newton, writing his Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy, demonstrated not only that what Kepler had found, did necessarily obtain in the Planetary System; but also, that all the Phænomena of Comets wou'd naturally follow from the same Principles; which he abundantly illustrated by the Example of the aforesaid Comet of the Year 1680, shewing, at the same time, a Method of Delineating the Orbits of Comets Geometrically; wherein he (not without the highest Admiration of all Men) solv'd a Problem, whose Intricacy render'd it worthy of himself. This Comet he prov'd to move round the Sun in a Parabolical Orb, and to describe Area's (taken at the Center of the Sun) proportional to the Times.
[I]n the Year 1472, which being the swiftest of all, and nearest to the Earth, was observ'd by Regiomantanus. This Comet (fo frightful upon the Account both of the Magnitude of its Body,and the Tail) mov'd Forty Degrees of a great Circle in the Heavens, in the Space of one Day, and was the first, of which any proper Observations are come down to us.
The principal Use therefore of this Table of the Elements of their Motions, and that which induced me to construct it, is, That whenever a new Comet shall appear, we may be able to know, by comparing together the Elements, whether it be any of those which has appear'd before, and consequently to determine its Period, and the Axis of its Orbit, and to foretell its Return. And, indeed, there are many Things which make me believe that the Comet which Apian observ'd in the Year 1531, was the same with that which Kepler and Longomontanus took Notice of and describ'd in the Year 1607, and which I my self have seen return, and observ'd in the Year 1682.
By comparing together the Accounts of the Motions of these Comets, 'tis apparent, their Orbits are dispos'd in no manner of Order; nor can they, as the Planets are, be comprehended within a Zodiack, but move indifferently every Way, as well Retrograde as Direct; from whence it is clear, they are not carry'd about or mov'd in Vortices. Moreover, the Distances in their Perihelium's are sometimes greater, sometimes less; which makes me suspect, there may be a far greater Number of them, which moving in Regions more remote from the Sun, become very obscure; and wanting Tails, pass by us unseen.
The Astreonomical Elements of the Motions in a Parabolick Orb of all the Comets that have been hitherto duly obferv'd. ...This Table needs little Explication, since 'tis plain enough from the Titles, what the Numbers mean. Only it maybe observ'd, that the Perihelium Distances, are estimated in such Parts, as the Middle Distance of the Earth from the Sun, contains 100000.
But Seneca the Philosopher, having consider'd the Phænomena of Two remarkable Comets of his Time, made no Scruple to place them amongst the Cœlestial Bodies; believing them to be Stars of equal Duration with the World, tho' he owns their Motions to be govern'd by Laws not as then known or found out. And at last (which was no untrue or vain Prediction) he foretells, that there should be Ages sometime hereafter, to whom Time and Diligence shou'd unfold all these Mysteries, and who shou'd wonder that the Ancients cou'd be ignorant of them, after some lucky Interpreter of Nature had shewn, in what Parts of the Heavens the Comets wander'd, and how great they were.
All the Elements agree, and nothing seems to contradict this my Opinion, besides the Inequality of the Periodick Revolutions: Which Inequality is not so great neither, as that it may not be owing to Physical Causes. For the Motion of Saturn is so disturbed by the rest of the Planets, especially Jupiter, that the Periodick Time of that Planet is uncertain for some whole Days together. How much more therefore will a Comet be subject to such like Errors, which rises almost Four times higher than Saturn, and whose Velocity, tho' encreased but a very little, would be sufficient to change its Orbit, from an Elliptical to a Parabolical one.
Yet almost all the Astronomers differ'd from this Opinion of Seneca; neither did Seneca himself think fit to set down those Phænomena of the Motion, by which he was enabled to maintain his Opinion: Nor the Times of those Appearances, which might be of use to Posterity, in order to the Determining these Things. And indeed, upon the Turning over very many Histories of Comets, I find nothing at all that can be of Service in this Affair, before, A.D. 1337, at which time , a Constantinopolitan Historian and Astronomer, did pretty accurately describe the Path of a Comet amongst the Fix'd Stars, but was too laxe as to the Account of the Time; so that this most doubtful and uncertain Comet, only deserves to be inserted in our Catalogue, for the sake of its appearing near 400 Years ago.