[We are confronted with our] old dilemma at every Austrian action in the Balkans. If we encourage them, they say we pushed them into it. If we discourage them, they say we left them in the lurch. Then they will throw themselves into the open arms of the Western powers and we lose our last important ally. ... [My predicament is] worse than in 1912, because this time Austria is on the defensive against Serbo-Russian intrigues. ... An attack on Serbia can lead to world war. [Any general conflagration] however it ends [will lead] to a revolution of all existing conditions. ... The future belongs to Russia which grows and grows, looming above us as an increasingly terrifying nightmare. ... Perhaps the old Emperor [Francis Joseph] will prefer not to fight after all. If war comes from the east so that we have to fight for Austria-Hungary and not Austria-Hungary for us, we have a chance of winning. ... [I]f war does not break out, if the Tsar is unwilling or France, alarmed, counsels peace, we have the prospect of splitting the Entente.

We are now in a position of self-defence, and necessity knows no law! (Cries of “Quite right.”) Our troops have occupied Luxembourg, perhaps they have already entered Belgium. (Loud applause.) That is a breach of international law. The French Government, it is true, had declared in Brussels that they would respect Belgian neutrality so long as their opponent respected it. But we knew that France stood ready to invade it. (Cries of indignation.)

Of the sea blockade imposed by us jointly with Austria-Hungary on Britain, France and Italy, I spoke on January 31 before your Main Committee. To the Note announcing the blockade which was published at the tune, we have received from the neutrals replies with reservations and protests. We are by no means unaware of the great difficulties with which neutral shipping has become confronted, and are trying to mitigate them as far as possible. But we also know that these difficulties are ultimately due only to Britain's brutal sea tyranny. It is this enslavement by Britain of all non-British sea traffic that we want to and willl break. The freedom of the sea, for which we are fighting, will also be of benefit to the neutral countries.

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It is a crime that Russia has forced war upon us while we are still mediating between Vienna and Petersburg, and a Franco-Russia war against Germany is enough of a disaster. ... This war turns into an unlimited world catastrophe only through England's participation. It was in London's hands to curb French revanchism and pan-Slav chauvinism. Whitehall has not done so, but rather repeatedly egged them on. Now England actively helps them. Germany, the Emperor, and the government are peace-loving. That the ambassador knows as well as I do. We enter the war with a clear conscience, but England's responsibility is monumental.

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Like you, I believe our most urgent task is a modus vivendi with England. In the last analysis even Morocco was intended to facilitate this. ... We should do everything our finances allow for our defenses on land and sea, but we must work as quietly as possible, not threaten boisterously. Only then can we improve our relations with London and prevent a new naval law from leading to war.

We were severely handicapped by the war of 70-71 and by our geographical position. Since the coronation of Emperor [William II] we often did the opposite of that which would have lightened our burden. ... [But] surely imperialism would have triumphed even without our help, and it remains highly questionable if, even with the most reasonable policy, we could have prevented the natural French, Russian, and English opposition from uniting against us. We have become guilty but only universal and collective guilt has brought about the world catastrophe.

This evening I have most energetically declared to the Viennese cabinet that Germany will not swim in Austria's wake in the Balkans. Should Vienna reply affirmatively I still do not despair for peace. Sad to say, through quasi-elemental forces and the persistent poisoning of relations among the cabinets, a war desired by no one might be unleashed.

Lord yes, in a certain sense it was a preventive war, [motivated by] the constant threat of attack, the greater likelihood of its inevitability in the future, and by the military's claim: today war is still possible without defeat, but not in two years! Yes, the generals. It could only have been avoided by a rapprochement with England, that is still my conviction. But after we had decided for a [common] policy with Austria, we could not desert her in such danger.

All these attempts on which, as he well knew, I had worked incessantly, were wrested from me. And by whom? By England; and why? Because of Belgian neutrality! Can this neutrality which we violate only out of necessity, fighting for our very existence, and with the express assurance that we will repay any damage, if Belgium lets us march through—can this neutrality and the way in which it is threatened, really provide the reason for a world war? Compared to the disaster of such a holocaust does not the significance of this neutrality dwindle into a scrap of paper?