Even random differences in pay lead to the backward inference of differences in skill and hence to the development of unequal influence. It's an elem… - Leonard Mlodinow

The law of small numbers is not really a law. It is a sarcastic name describing the misguided attempt to apply the law of large numbers when the numbers aren't large.

After my two attempts at gently raising the issue of string theory, one afternoon I stepped into Feynman's office to ask him what he really thought.<p>"Can we talk a little about string theory?" I asked. … "Don't you think there are aspects of it that seem very promising?"<p>"Promising? What does it promise? Does it promise to tell you the mass of the proton? No. What does it promise to tell you?"<p>"Well, no one knows how to extract any quantitative predictions yet, but—"<p>"You're wrong. It does make a quantitative prediction. Do you know what that is?"<p>I looked at him. My mind was a blank.<p>"It requires that we live in ten dimensions. Is it reasonable to have a theory that requires ten dimensions? No. Do we see those dimensions? No. So it rolls them up into tiny balls or cylinders too small to detect. So the only prediction it makes is one that has to be explained away because it doesn't fit with observation."

We afford automatic respect to superstar business moguls, politicians, and actors and to anyone flying around in a private jet, as if their accomplishments must reflect unique qualities not shared by those forced to eat commercial airline food. And we place too much confidence in the overly precise predictions of people - political pundits, financial experts, business consultants - who claim a track record demonstrating expertise.