The rational heuristic is to avoid any market commentary from anyone who has to work for a living. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Look into your own existence. Count the significant events, the technological changes,and the inventions that have taken place in our environment since you were born, and compare them to what was expected before their advent. How many of them came on a schedule?

Look into your own personal life, to your choice of profession, say, or meeting your mate, your exile from your country of origin, the betrayals you faced, your sudden enrichment or impoverishment. How often did these things occur according to plan?

If you do not take risks for your ideas you are nothing. Nothing.

And, as expected, via negativa is part of classical wisdom. For the Arab scholar and religious leader Ali Bin Abi-Taleb (no relation), keeping ones distance from an ignorant person is equivalent to keeping company with a wise man.