I heard that before about Epsilon... haven't you? - Lixion Avila

Since neither I nor the [forecast] models are good enough to precisely know if Ernesto will have an intensity of 64 knots at landfall...which is the border between hurricane and tropical storm intensity and 4 knots above the forecast...a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the coast.

There are no clear reasons, and I am not going to make one up, to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon.

I hope there will be no more surprises.