Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: "Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.

"Our human race is affected by a chronic underestimation of the possibility of the future straying from the course initially envisioned (in addition to other biases that sometimes exert a compounding effect). To take an obvious example, think about how many people divorce. Almost all of them are acquainted with the statistic that between one-third and one-half of all marriages fail, something the parties involved did not forecast while tying the knot. Of course, "not us," because "we get along so well" (as if others tying the knot got along poorly)."

There are three types of large corporations: those about to go bankrupt, those that are bankrupt and hide it, those that are bankrupt and don't know it.

Given their track record, I would recommend hiring academic economists and do the OPPOSITE of what they advise. For they aren't even random.