In a centralized system, it takes very, very little money to control government. I am not surprised to see how little money lobbyists make compared t… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Everything before the "but" is meant to be ignored by the speaker; and everything after the "but" should be ignored by the listener.

Someone with a high public presence who is controversial and takes risks for his opinion is less likely to be a bullshit vendor.

There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a random one (...). In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.