Consider a more extreme example than the casino experiment. Assume a collection of people play Russian roulette a single time for a million dollars —… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Consider a more extreme example than the casino experiment. Assume a collection of people play Russian roulette a single time for a million dollars — this is the central story in Fooled by Randomness. About five out of six will make money. If someone used a standard cost-benefit analysis, he would have claimed that one has an 83.33 percent chance of gains, for an “expected” average return per shot of $833,333. But if you keep playing Russian roulette, you will end up in the cemetery. Your expected return is … not computable.