Even if Russia gives guarantees, I believe the likelihood of Russia helping us is zero. - Andriy Kobolyev

Moreover, the EU's Green Deal, which commits the bloc to become carbon-neutral by 2050, means the balance of bargaining power has shifted decisively from fossil fuel producers to consumers. European governments must use that advantage to sanction Russian energy exports in a way that will not damage their economies. The best approach is the tried and tested Iranian sanction model: natural gas can flow from Gazprom to Europe. However, all proceeds are kept in special escrow accounts in European banks until Russia meets certain conditions.

Beyond the military domain, the most obvious target for such retaliation is Russian energy exports, which account for roughly 36 percent of the country's total budget revenues, most of which are used to fund military expenditure. Europe should move fast to replace Russian energy supplies permanently.

The Russians and Putin have always believed Europe can never survive without Russian oil. ... Putin thinks if he wins in Ukraine, the Kremlin will be forgiven because there is no alternative, and the west is weak. That is how he thinks, how Gazprom thinks, and how Rosneft thinks. That is how they see the world. That is why Putin personally controls the energy trade. It is his sacred cash cow. ...There is a Russian proverb: a sacred place is never empty for long.