He defaults to thinking that what he doesn't see is not there, or what he does not understand does not exist. At the core, he tends to mistake the un… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

he tends to mistake the unknown for the nonexistent.

[W]e read too much into shallow recent history... but not from history in general [which] teaches us that things that never happened before do happen. ...outside of the narrowly defined time series; the broader the look, the better the lesson.

It seemed, wrote Machiavelli, that in the midst of murders and civil wars, our republic became stronger [and] its citizens infused with virtues. … A little bit of agitation gives resources to souls and what makes the species prosper isn’t peace, but freedom.

The principle of intervention, like that of healers, is first do no harm (primum non nocere); even more, we will argue, those who dont take risks should never be involved in making decisions.