My only measure of success is how much time you have to kill. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"Note that I am not relying in this book on the beastly method of collecting selective "corroborating evidence." ...I call this overload of examples naïve empiricism — successions of anecdotes selected to fit a story do not constitute evidence. Anyone looking for confirmation will find enough of it to deceive himself — and no doubt his peers.* The Black Swan idea is based on the structure of randomness in empirical reality.

*It is also naïve empiricism to provide, in support of some argument, series of eloquent confirmatory quotes by dead authorities. By searching, you can always find someone who made a well-sounding statement that confirms your point of view — and, on every topic, it is possible to find another dead thinker who said the exact opposite. Almost all my non Yogi Berra quotes are from people I disagree with."

considering that alternative outcomes could have taken place, that the world could have been different, is the core of probabilistic thinking.

Journalists feel contempt for those who fear them and a deep resentment for those who don't.