The best compliment to me is: you write with your scars. Everything else is verbiage. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

HEURISTIC: In any profession, when someone becomes rich and/or famous and starts socializing or attending organized gatherings w/the rich & famous & members of the IAND*, you can start counting the time until the big blowup. * International Association of Name Droppers

It is remarkable how fast and how effectively you can construct a nationality with a flag , a few speeches, and a national anthem; to this day I avoid the label "Lebanese," preferring the less restrictive "Levantine" designation.

Mixing forecast and prophecy is symptomatic of randomness-foolishness...