We know from chaos theory that even if you had a perfect model of the world, you'd need infinite precision in order to predict future events. With so… - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

As an empiricist (actually a skeptical empiricist) I despise the moralizers beyond anything on this planet: I still wonder why they blindly believe in ineffectual methods. Delivering advice assumes that our cognitive apparatus rather than our emotional machinery exerts some meaningful control over our actions. We will see how modern behavioral science shows this to be completely untrue.

somehow it is only when you don’t care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.

I write only if I feel like it and only on a subject I feel like writing about — and the reader is no fool.