Administrators everywhere on the planet, in all businesses and pursuits, and at all times in history, have been the plague. - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

It is far easier to figure out if something is fragile than to predict the occurrence of an event that may harm it.

It takes a huge investment in introspection to learn that the thirty or more hours spent studying the news last month neither had any predictive ability during your activities of that month nor did it impact your current knowledge of the world.

Governments are wasting billions of dollars on attempting to predict events that are produced by interdependent systems and are therefore not statistically understandable at the individual level.