We are also entering a dip in the so-called ... This could mean that future recessions will be severe. - Peter Turchin

SDT is a general theory that guides our understanding of political violence dynamics and social breakdown in all large-scale state-level societies.

We have analyzed CrisiDB because there's plenty of data on weather proxies. ...Weather, climate worsening seems to serve often as a trigger for crisis. But the key question is whether the societies have resilience... When populations are not immiserated and elites are not overproduced the social stability and resilience is very high, and societies adjust reasonably well to climate shocks. It's really when drivers for instability have been working for a while, that's when the climate can often serve as the trigger.

[G]rowing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, political, and cultural.