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Can we model and forecast the dynamics of social resilience and its opposite, social breakdown? - Peter Turchin
" "Can we model and forecast the dynamics of social resilience and its opposite, social breakdown?
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About Peter Turchin
Peter Valentinovich Turchin (born 22 May 1957) is a Russian-American complexity scientist, specializing in an area of study he and his colleagues developed called —mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies. He is currently Editor-in-Chief at Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution. As of 2020, he is a director of the .
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P Turchin
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Peter Valentinovich Turchin
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Additional quotes by Peter Turchin
In the United States, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. These... social indicators are... related... dynamically. They... experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability. ...50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020.
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