What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it. This is all the more worrisome when we engage in … - Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it. This is all the more worrisome when we engage in deadly conflicts: wars are fundamentally unpredictable (and we do not know it). Owing to this misunderstanding of the causal chains between policy and actions, we can easily trigger Black Swans thanks to aggressive ignorance-like a child playing with a chemistry kit.
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About
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (born 1 January 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon) is an essayist, epistemologist, researcher, and former practitioner of mathematical finance.
Biography information from
Wikiquote·
Portrait adapted from
Wikimedia Commons, Sarah Josephine Taleb (CC BY)
History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.
you cannot separate knowledge from contact with the ground. Actually, you cannot separate anything from contact with the ground. And the contact with the real world is done via skin in the game — having an exposure to the real world, and paying a price for its consequences,
@learnfromerror I can't talk on behalf of Nassim Taleb, as I am sharing his wisdom on the Twitter account. What I understand from him is that it doesn't matter whether the prediction is right or wrong if one doesn't have skin in the game. - Cetin, curator of @TalebWisdom account.
