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<nowiki>[</nowiki>s] don't have to get into fantastically complicated statistics. ...It's all just to do with proportions, that's all! It's not a ski… - David Spiegelhalter
" "<nowiki>[</nowiki>s] don't have to get into fantastically complicated statistics. ...It's all just to do with proportions, that's all! It's not a skill. Well, it is a skill in how to tell a story. ...[C]linicians now—we've got some online courses that do this—can learn to do it... Getting a rough idea of magnitudes is very important, and... to avoid words like "chances" and... I'm not even that keen on "s." So I'd much rather say... Experience shows that out of 100 people who match you in these characteristics—They're not you, but would be matching—This is what we would expect to happen, about 60 of them would survive this and... 30 blah, blah, blah... Just as a descriptor, and you could draw a little picture...[etc.] So we've got these possibilities. ...We don't know which one of these you'll be, and then it's very reasonable to tune it: but in your circumstances we... think you're better... other factors... put your chances a little higher... but we can't guarantee it either way.
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About David Spiegelhalter
Sir David John Spiegelhalter (born 16 August 1953) is a British statistician and a Fellow of . From 2007 to 2018 he was in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge. He is an ISI highly cited researcher and current Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the . In 2020 he joined the UK Statistics Authority board as a non-executive director for a period of three years, which was extended through to 2026.
Also Known As
Birth Name:
David John Spiegelhalter
Alternative Names:
David J Spiegelhalter
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David J. Spiegelhalter
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Sir David John Spiegelhalter
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Additional quotes by David Spiegelhalter
Misleading anecdote is someone smokes 20 a day and lives to 110, [or] who buys some tablets off the web and their cancer goes away... These are not representative... stories... [T]his is an active area of research, and it's been shown that if you present information in the way that Michael was presenting, as icon arrays, show both the good and the bad, show the totality, [it's been] shown empirically that you can make people less influenced by misleading anecdotes.
We find it very difficult to deal with... low numbers, one in a million, one in a billion... Once I have to start counting the zeros, all intuition and feeling goes. So it's hopeless, and of course we're bad at it. Why should we be good at doing that sort of thing? ...[I]t's more and more reported that people will use this expected frequency format, where instead of talking about... .03 per person year... What does that mean, for heaven's sakes. It's absolutely ridiculous scientific language for something. No, what you say is, out of 100 people... we would expect 3 for this to happen each year. ...You talk about a specific group of people, which you can... draw a... picture of... and that helps enormously. You... want to bring things to... whole numbers, small numbers, preferably between 1 and 100, or between 1 and 50... magnitudes that people have got a feeling for, and... no decimal places, no multiple zeros. You've got to get rid of all of that. You've got to get things to units people can understand, preferably on a scale of 1 to 10.
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