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The South African governmentrecently released a new economic policyframework, the New Growth Path (NGP).This policy is intended to facilitate ‘arestructuring of the South Africaneconomy to improve its performance interms of labour absorption as well as thecomposition and rate of growth’ (EconomicDevelopment Department).
Balancing fiscal and monetary policies is a problem. If you do just one thing, it is not necessarily enough—neither monetary policy alone nor fiscal policy alone, and neither tax cuts nor expenditure increases alone. You need to mix policy. By having the right balance, you can get high employment and stable prices.
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As for our specific work going forward, we will introduce a number of policy combinations as follows: a combination of macro policies, a combination of policies for expanding demand, a combination of policies for advancing reform and innovation, and a combination of policies for preventing and defusing risks. These policy combinations will all be supported by concrete implementing steps. We will enrich, adjust and improve these policy combinations in the course of implementation.
A number of fiscal and monetary policy options have been deployed to end the recession and the efforts are yielding fruits as the recently released inflation figure shows that inflation is trending down after 15 months stretch of rising price level. The CBN is also working to increase supply of foreign exchange and boost liquidity in the interbank market to ease the scarcity of foreign exchange for the manufacture of goods and increase the level of production. On the part of the fiscal authority, efforts at broadening the revenue base and increasing the collection of taxes have been intensified and are yielding fruits.
For Nigeria, like most developing countries, policy has often times focused on the flexible exchange rate regime and financial integration, emphasizing monetary policy independence. However, as globalization, capital flows constraints and other adverse phenomena set in, it has become imperative to seek a convergence.
Monetary policy management has been made difficult by the uncertain global environment, arising from political and economic developments around the world. There has been an intense attack on free trade, multilateralism and globalization and the situation has not been helped by a growing preference for nationalist interest.
I take what is good where I find it. I am for what the Anglo-Saxons call a 'policy mix' in the context of a mixed economy. ... I would simply say...without wishing to offend anyone, that you appreciate the distance which separates British Leyland from Renault. We want to have more Renaults. It is the difference between an industrial policy which succeeds and one which does not.
Then, there is the issue of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Non- harmonization of monetary and fiscal policies is an issue of serious concern in the country because they complement each other. Monetary policy has a limit and whenever it reaches that limit, the only way out is for the fiscal authorities to intervene in the economy. So, in the absence of such coordination/harmonization between the two, a serious economic problem may arise.
I am going to negotiate with the IMF on the basis of our existing policies, not changes in policies, and I need your support to do it. (Applause) But when I say "existing policies", I mean things we do not like as well as things we do like. It means sticking to the very painful cuts in public expenditure (shouts from the floor) on which the Government has already decided. It means sticking to a pay policy which enables us, as the TUC resolved a week or two ago, to continue the attack on inflation. (Shout of, "Resign".)
It is also expected that the fiscal authorities would provide direction and leadership while the monetary authorities would facilitate an enabling business environment conducive for growth. Nonetheless, the overriding mandate of the Bank continues to be price stability across the major price rates: inflation; loan interest; and foreign exchange. Stability in prices is essential for investment and consumption. Monetary policy can help through influencing short-term interest rate, but monetary policy alone is not enough to pull the country out of recession. Fiscal policy must come in and do its part to fully pull the economy out of recession.
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