The best practical advice then is: try to maximize your expected payoff, which is the sum of all payoffs multiplied by probabilities. - Howard Raiffa

About Howard Raiffa

Howard Raiffa (January 24, 1924 – July 8, 2016) helped found and was the first director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He was the Frank P. Ramsey Professor (Emeritus) of Managerial Economics, a joint chair held by the Business School and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He was an influential Bayesian decision theorist and pioneer in the field of decision analysis, with works in statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis, and negotiation analysis.